Some ramblings from my personal life and current affairs:
1) Books
Been reading a lot again lately. I went through a bit of a lull there after our trip to Aruba where I wasn't reading much at all, but now I am back on it. This week I finished a David Baldacci book, Stone Cold. Those are always entertaining, if a bit light on substance. I dove right into the next one in the series, Divine Justice, which is as good as all the others so far, though it's mostly set outside of DC, which is a big part of the reason that I enjoy some of his other books.
I also finished Alive, the story of the survivors of the Andes plane crash in the early 70s, where the survivors were able to last 10 weeks in the mountains by eating the dead passengers. Wow. If you ever think your life is tough, just think to yourself "Well this current work assignment sucks, and I hate traffic, but at least I didn't eat my cousin to stay alive today". Just an amazing story of persistence and togetherness, but at the same time a fair account of personal weakness, and how people can behave (or not) in the face of hopelessness. This book was written quite a while ago, and was made into a movie starring Ethan Hawke, but like most other adaptations, the movie doesn't capture the real spirit of the struggle like the book.
My new metro book is The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, by David Landes. I've had this book on my bookshelf for ten years, but just never got around to reading it. It has been staring at me in its familiar position next to its unread compatriot, Guns, Germs, and Steel, calling out to be read, and I am finally obliging. It is an interesting tale of geography, history, and anthropology, and how they combine to make some societies rich, and some poor. I hope it's as good as it has started out.
2) AIG Bonuses
Lots of talk about AIG bonuses. I would say that any sort of 90% tax is silly. The government has bought up most of the company. Now they are doing all they can to ensure that no competent people will go work there. This means the taxpayers will never recoup their bonuses. If some of the employees there will accept revised bonuses, then good, if not, let them go on their way, but let's not make working for AIG such a poisonous experience that the story will end badly. It doesn't have to - there are still important and viable portions of the company. Everyone just needs to chill out and let this play out without trying to tar and feather a bunch of people who in most cases had nothing to do with the irresponsible financial practices that have killed the company.
3) Where is Spring?
Where is it? It's 50 and cloudy every day. I am ready to go for a run outside and a bike ride, and for leaves on trees. Come on Spring, get your ass in gear!
4) World Baseball Classic
Why is this played? Does it matter? Does anyone really care? I guess it's marginally better than watching your players play in Spring Training, but isn't it basically like watching 23 AAA all star games? I just don't feel it. Side note: my new HD TV makes baseball look sweet, so WBC has that going for it, at least. I just think that all this is doing is penalizing the teams that have lots of good players who play in the classic (see the Tigers, whose 4-5-6 is playing for Venezuela). Bah. Bring on opening day.
5) Travel
We haven't done any. Boo. We are off to Massachusetts next month for our nephew's 2nd birthday, which we are definitely looking forward to! We love our nephew (and Mindy and Jayson too)!
6) Rush Limbaugh
Keep in mind that I am not a 'registered' anything. I vote on the issues, and that generally leaves me squarely in the middle. That said, Rush Limbaugh is just terrible. Is there anything he does that is constructive? It really doesn't seem like it. Seems like he's just a terrible windbag who wants to tear down, tear down, tear down everything that he doesn't think is okay. Easy to snipe when you aren't actually responsible for anything. He should really reconsider wanting to be the leader of the RNC, because then he will be accountable, and that will be new for him.
7) NCAA Championships
God I love college basketball. I love this tournament. I love that Michigan finally made it back in the dance, and I love that Syracuse made a great run in the tournament (6 OTs! WTF!?!) to nab a three seed in a relatively easy region. All I was thinking was "well Syracuse hasn't been announced yet, and we know they are in - what if this ends up as Syracuse-Michigan in a 5-12 matchup?" Could be tough on my marriage! Fortunately nothing came of it. Phew!
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Friday, December 12, 2008
Come on, UAW
UAW should file paperwork to change their name to Unemployed Auto Workers, because that's where this is headed. What this move says to me is that they don't have a lot of faith in the Big 3 to avoid bankruptcy, whether or not they get the bailout, so they might as well milk the money cow until it happens. Otherwise, how you can justify a decision to save the entire industry. I am sad for Michigan right now. It has been in the grips of greed and incompetence now for too long, and I can only hope that the bottom is near.
With news of a potential White House bailout being floated about, I frankly hope that Washington doesn't blink - anyone who is criticizing Congress for asking questions is kidding themselves. Just because Congress isn't perfect doesn't mean that these questions don't need to be asked. Would we all rather just dump taxpayer money into a broken company just to keep it afloat and broken for a few more months??
With news of a potential White House bailout being floated about, I frankly hope that Washington doesn't blink - anyone who is criticizing Congress for asking questions is kidding themselves. Just because Congress isn't perfect doesn't mean that these questions don't need to be asked. Would we all rather just dump taxpayer money into a broken company just to keep it afloat and broken for a few more months??
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Recession + Information = Comeback
Media is all different now. As this week's bankruptcy filing by Chicago Tribune illustrates, nothing is sacred in media any more. Almost all print media is laying off employees, and only those who were extremely forward thinking about the web and its potential will survive intact and profitable. "News" is still available in newspapers, and on the tradition news sites online, like cnn.com and msnbc.com. There is some analysis in the papers as well, in the form of editorials and columns, but, the vast majority is local news or newswire stuff. For better or worse, it seems like the real brunt of the "thought-work" has shifted onto the web. Obviously, since the barriers to entry on the web are low-to-nonexistent, so the existence of authoritative sources of news and analysis on the web are not a product of a name brand, but of the amount of followers the given site has. This is dangerous, but the good definitely outweighs the bad.
In the face of this, the way we react as a nation to the current state of the economy is quite interesting. The last time we were in a situation this dire (by most accounts the Great Depression), the knowledge and understanding about the technical minutiae of the crisis was concentrated in the brains of a very small group of people like Keynes, Schumpeter, Robbins and Hayek. Now, the science of Economics is much more mainstream, and there are far more people out there who understand (at least at some level) what is going on in the economy, what it means, and what to do about it (to a somewhat lesser extent). There are amazing modeling tools that make the what-if part of economics and econometrics so much more productive. Even more fascinating is that these economists are talking to us directly about what is going on, and what it all means. You can read near-daily blog posts from some of the great economic minds of our time about the current events, putting all the economic theory into context.
When I was taking these economics classes during my time at James Madison University, it was pretty rare to get economic theory and context in the same class (thank you Dr. Kreutzer for being one of the good ones who made a real effort to do this). Gregory Mankiw wrote the book I used for microeconomic theory. Now I can read his blog every day. You get real-time comment about such nebulous topics as bailouts, credit markets, unemployment, and whatever else you want. All this from brilliant folks who just want to share. Incredible.
I think that this information availability, and the wisdom of crowds will speed up the business cycles in our country. We have already seen the cycles speed increase on the way up - now we are seeing a blitzkrieg-style downturn. I believe that we will see a similarly quick end to this crisis. (I hope).
In the face of this, the way we react as a nation to the current state of the economy is quite interesting. The last time we were in a situation this dire (by most accounts the Great Depression), the knowledge and understanding about the technical minutiae of the crisis was concentrated in the brains of a very small group of people like Keynes, Schumpeter, Robbins and Hayek. Now, the science of Economics is much more mainstream, and there are far more people out there who understand (at least at some level) what is going on in the economy, what it means, and what to do about it (to a somewhat lesser extent). There are amazing modeling tools that make the what-if part of economics and econometrics so much more productive. Even more fascinating is that these economists are talking to us directly about what is going on, and what it all means. You can read near-daily blog posts from some of the great economic minds of our time about the current events, putting all the economic theory into context.
When I was taking these economics classes during my time at James Madison University, it was pretty rare to get economic theory and context in the same class (thank you Dr. Kreutzer for being one of the good ones who made a real effort to do this). Gregory Mankiw wrote the book I used for microeconomic theory. Now I can read his blog every day. You get real-time comment about such nebulous topics as bailouts, credit markets, unemployment, and whatever else you want. All this from brilliant folks who just want to share. Incredible.
I think that this information availability, and the wisdom of crowds will speed up the business cycles in our country. We have already seen the cycles speed increase on the way up - now we are seeing a blitzkrieg-style downturn. I believe that we will see a similarly quick end to this crisis. (I hope).
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Why Lou Dobbs Does a Disservice to America/Why I Hate Lou Dobbs
So Lou Dobbs is a flaming idiot. Not a stupid fellow, but an idiot nonetheless. I keep reading his driven on CNN.com, and every so ofter he's on while I am at the gym. I think he's never actually said something I agree with. His campaign for the 'middle-class' is hilarious, and his campaign against the evil immigrants is shortsighted and obnoxious at best. His flames against NAFTA and free trade policies are poorly formed and shortsighted, and his whole xenophobic attitude is reminiscent of bad times gone by, Why is it bad for America to buy things that are made less expensively overseas? Because people in Ohio lose their jobs? You know what? If Bob in Alabama can make my car part faster than Joe in Ohio, then maybe Joe should find something different to make, or figure out how to make that car part at a lower cost. If not, Joe won't be selling too many car parts anymore. Joe and all his employees are going to lose their jobs. They could:
A) Get some job retraining.
B) Sit around and complain about how the evil Alabamese and their price-cutting evil capitalist leaders are flooding the market with cheap car parts.
C) Take a long look at the state of the market and push your union reps to start defending not just your current wages, but the future of your family and community.
Unfortunately, they usually do B and C, but the culprit isn't Alabama, it's Mexico, China, Japan, what have you.
Lou Dobbs spends all his time spewing nativist rants about protectionism, when the simple fact is that America doesn't really NEED nor should it WANT to have these manufacturing jobs. The demand isn't there to buy goods made by union labor drawing $25-35 an hour. Why would it be? Lou Dobbs' next show topic should be called "The Fleecing of the Middle Class: Support America and Buy Overpriced Stuff!". How would that go over?
Want to rant about something, Lou? Rant about unions. Unions were created for a noble purpose. A century ago, Upton Sinclair wrote of the abominable conditions in factories, and the powerless workers who were just lucky to have a job, even if it meant risking their lives each and every day to do the work. Unions were necessary, and government controls were necessary. That kind of thing would never happen nowadays, and if it did, there would be some 20/20 expose or a YouTube video posted that would blow the scandal wide open. Unions are not protecting people's safety anymore. So, what do they do? Let's see.
1) Take a cut of everyone's check
2) Use that money to pay for a cadre of lobbyists in DC who bribe politicians to support the unsustainable industry
3) Force companies to pay unsustainable wages to the workers in the union in the unsustainable industry
4) Strike when the unsustainable industry tries to do something that will lower costs, hence making it a sustainable industry
5) Pay unemployment (only for a while) when their bully tactics inevitably end with bankruptcy and business shutdowns of said unsustainable industries
Where is the union after the factory moves to Alabama? In Alabama, of course, where the cycle of inevitable cost rises will continue. What about when the factory moves to Mexico? Hmm. No more union. What do those workers do then? Collect unemployment and watch Lou Dobbs! Yay!
Why aren't the unions doing the respectable thing and telling their people "Look guys, here's the deal - this is no longer a manufacturing economy. This plant will eventually move or shut down, so what you guys need to do is get educated so that you can get a job in the service industry. We are going to take all your dues and help this become a reality. In the meantime, we probably won't get many pay raises for you, but we will work with the companies to keep your jobs while you go to school and get training." That would be so much more productive. But instead, we complain about evil NAFTA. Meh. Not that great.
The immigration policy rants by Dobbs are a whole 'nother post.
A) Get some job retraining.
B) Sit around and complain about how the evil Alabamese and their price-cutting evil capitalist leaders are flooding the market with cheap car parts.
C) Take a long look at the state of the market and push your union reps to start defending not just your current wages, but the future of your family and community.
Unfortunately, they usually do B and C, but the culprit isn't Alabama, it's Mexico, China, Japan, what have you.
Lou Dobbs spends all his time spewing nativist rants about protectionism, when the simple fact is that America doesn't really NEED nor should it WANT to have these manufacturing jobs. The demand isn't there to buy goods made by union labor drawing $25-35 an hour. Why would it be? Lou Dobbs' next show topic should be called "The Fleecing of the Middle Class: Support America and Buy Overpriced Stuff!". How would that go over?
Want to rant about something, Lou? Rant about unions. Unions were created for a noble purpose. A century ago, Upton Sinclair wrote of the abominable conditions in factories, and the powerless workers who were just lucky to have a job, even if it meant risking their lives each and every day to do the work. Unions were necessary, and government controls were necessary. That kind of thing would never happen nowadays, and if it did, there would be some 20/20 expose or a YouTube video posted that would blow the scandal wide open. Unions are not protecting people's safety anymore. So, what do they do? Let's see.
1) Take a cut of everyone's check
2) Use that money to pay for a cadre of lobbyists in DC who bribe politicians to support the unsustainable industry
3) Force companies to pay unsustainable wages to the workers in the union in the unsustainable industry
4) Strike when the unsustainable industry tries to do something that will lower costs, hence making it a sustainable industry
5) Pay unemployment (only for a while) when their bully tactics inevitably end with bankruptcy and business shutdowns of said unsustainable industries
Where is the union after the factory moves to Alabama? In Alabama, of course, where the cycle of inevitable cost rises will continue. What about when the factory moves to Mexico? Hmm. No more union. What do those workers do then? Collect unemployment and watch Lou Dobbs! Yay!
Why aren't the unions doing the respectable thing and telling their people "Look guys, here's the deal - this is no longer a manufacturing economy. This plant will eventually move or shut down, so what you guys need to do is get educated so that you can get a job in the service industry. We are going to take all your dues and help this become a reality. In the meantime, we probably won't get many pay raises for you, but we will work with the companies to keep your jobs while you go to school and get training." That would be so much more productive. But instead, we complain about evil NAFTA. Meh. Not that great.
The immigration policy rants by Dobbs are a whole 'nother post.
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